Peak season in ecommerce: how to prepare your warehouse for Black Friday and Christmas

High season can rarely be solved just by working faster. A robust warehouse needs the right data, capacity, priorities and contingency plans before sales take off. Here is a concrete plan to protect both delivery accuracy and the customer experience.

What is a seasonal peak?

A seasonal peak is a period when order or goods volume is clearly above normal. It can be predictable – Christmas, Black Friday, a season change – or triggered by a successful campaign, an influencer post or unexpected demand. The load has to be assessed at every stage: doubling the orders can create more than double the work if baskets contain more lines, gift wrapping increases or bestsellers need replenishing in the middle of the campaign.

Why warehouses struggle in high season

• the forecast is based on revenue instead of orders, lines and units
• the campaign plan reaches the warehouse too late
• inbound deliveries coincide with the highest order volume
• packaging, labels or consumables run out
• new staff lack simple, clear work instructions
• locations for bestsellers are wrongly sized
• systems and integrations have not been load-tested
• returns capacity is forgotten in the planning

Plan the peak step by step

1. Make a forecast the warehouse can use. Translate the sales plan into orders per day, order lines, units picked, inbound pallets and parcels per shipping method. Build at least three scenarios – cautious, likely and high – and flag campaign items and products often sold together.
2. Set a shared campaign calendar. Marketing, purchasing, customer service and the warehouse should work from the same dates and volume assumptions: campaign start, advertising, last day for inbound deliveries, order stops, promised delivery times and planned launches.
3. Move inbound deliveries away from the peak days. Bestsellers and packaging should be received, checked and put away before order pressure peaks. Late inbound deliveries compete with outbound for doors, forklifts, space and staff.
4. Adapt the storage locations. Place high-frequency items close to efficient picking routes and fill pick locations in advance. Check that unit, carton and pallet levels are correct in the system. See slotting.
5. Secure staffing and onboarding. Plan shifts, key roles, breaks and reserve staff. Temporary staff need short visual instructions, defined permissions and tasks that can be quality-assured with scanning.
6. Prepare packing and shipping. Calculate packaging per order profile, not just historical total use. Make sure there is capacity for labels and transport booking, and a plan for what happens if a shipping service or collection is full.

Checklist before Black Friday and Christmas

• Is the forecast expressed in orders, lines and units per day?
• Are campaign items received and available with correct stock balances?
• Is there a priority order if volume exceeds capacity?
• Are pick locations for bestsellers adapted and filled?
• Are there enough cartons, bags, tape, labels and void fill?
• Have extra staff been onboarded and system permissions tested?
• Have carriers received a volume forecast and collection needs?
• Is customer service informed about realistic delivery promises?
• Is there capacity and are there rules for the returns after the campaign?

A WMS gives control under heavy load

When volumes rise, manual lists and verbal handovers become especially risky. A warehouse management system helps control orders, register events and keep item and stock information in one place. At Karlholm Logistics we use Ongoing WMS, and warehouse events are scanned throughout the flow.

During campaign days, follow the queue of unprocessed orders, order age, stock deviations, blocked orders and daily progress – and decide who acts on each deviation. A report without an owner creates no control.

• test order import and status feedback with higher data volumes
• check that campaign SKUs and bundle items are set up correctly
• use scanning to reduce errors when new people work in the flow
• follow stock levels and the order queue continuously
• document deviations so the next peak can be planned better

Do not forget the returns wave

High sales are often followed by more returns in absolute numbers. Reserve space and staff for receiving, inspection and restocking. If returns sit waiting, sellable products may be missing from the webshop while customer service waits for status. Define which returns can be handled as standard and which should be escalated, and follow lead time from receipt to decision and the restock rate per product group. See ecommerce returns.

When 3PL is the answer to seasonal variation

An in-house warehouse often has to be sized for the year's peak even though the capacity stands empty in quieter months. With a flexible 3PL partner, space and operational resources can be planned around varying needs – provided forecasts and campaign plans are shared in time.

Karlholm Logistics has resources for intensive peak seasons and can scale the setup to your needs. Through Ongoing WMS you have visibility of stock and deliveries; combined with personal contact, that makes it easier to plan, follow up and adjust during the campaign. See also peak and off-peak seasons.

After the peak: make the next one better

• compare the forecast with actual orders, lines and units
• identify when queues formed in receiving, picking, packing and returns
• measure mis-picks, late orders and extra work
• note which SKUs, packaging and shipping methods limited the flow
• update the capacity plan and work instructions straight away